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OCTOBER 2019

封面故事

航空产业资深老手

担任亚太航空公司协会(AAPA)总干事已近15年,对于安德鲁·赫德曼(Andrew Herdman)来说,挑战永无止境。尽管会员航空公司面对许多问题,他认为亚太地区航空产业前景光明。副编辑兼首席记者包乐天(Tom Ballantyne)报导。

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October 1st 2019

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全球经济陷入停滞、贸易战、社会动荡和极端天气事故 — 对于亚太航空公司协会(协会)总干事赫德曼及其会员航空公司而言,这些都是航空公司日常运营的重要部分。 Read More » 但是随着中美谈判拖延,日韩之间的争端日趋恶化以及抗争者在香港变得越来越暴力,前景是否一定难以感到乐观?

赫德曼说:「总体情况是,人们出游的人数仍在创纪录水平,而乘客人数仍在增长。过去六七年,客运量增长速度特别蓬勃,超越了长期平均水平。这是一个非常强劲的时期,不仅在亚洲,而且在全球范围。

「油价波动、地缘政治风险、天气事故和干扰 — 这些都是运营一家航空公司所面对挑战的一部分。航空业需要建立成对发生的一切事情具有应变能力和作出反应,并加以适应。

「很难预测这些事情的性质,尤其是地缘政治风险。贸易争端已经蔓延开来,在某些情况下正在影响消费者的情绪。这些事情正在影响旅客的旅游计划。我们看到在日本与韩国之间发生。至少航空公司需要管理运力。」

赫德曼说,影响这个地区机场的灾难性水灾已成为机场规划的一个议题,但台风是航空公司面对的现实。航空业正在透过提前取消航班及台风过后更快的复修和恢复服务来作出适应。

没有多少人会比赫德曼更了解航空公司在亚太地区所面对的问题。赫德曼是牛津大学的荣誉文学士,并获得研究院管理学哲学学士学位,服务协会之前他大部分时间都在太古集团的公司担任高级管理航空职务。他在贸易以至房地产和运输业集团的履历包括担任国泰航空餐饮服务的董事总经理、香港飞机工程公司(HAECO)的董事总经理、厦门太古培训中心(TAECO)的主席和国泰货运公司的总经理。他亦曾负责太古公司的企业传讯工作多年。

自从2004年担任总部位于吉隆坡的协会以来,赫德曼透过解决影响亚太地区航空公司的区域和全球政策问题,并与监管机构和行业协会紧密合作以促进可持续的民航业发展,从而提高了协会的形象。

他说:「强劲的盈利能力大约在四年前达到顶峰。北美航空公司一直是这方面的主要受益者,但他们仍然表现良好。尽管每家航空公司的情况各不相同,但亚洲航空公司的利润率因激烈竞争而缩减。

远程廉价航空公司业续好坏参半
他说廉价航空公司将继续在这个地区的短途航班市场上扩张。「但是,如果你看一下全球航空以及这个地区,大部分客运和大部分收入来自传统航空公司,仍然以中长途航线为主要商业模式。一些廉价航空公司尝试将廉航长途化。他们的成绩好坏参半。」赫德曼说。
「面对廉价航空公司激烈竞争的事实,许多联盟航空公司已经设立了专门的廉航子公司,或者以非常吸引的价格推销一定比例的经济舱位。
「但是,廉价航空公司的业绩同样好坏参半。他们都要抵抗同样的竞争压力。他们不仅要彼此竞争,而且传统航空公司也在透过在地区内的航线提供许多价格吸引的经济舱位来竞争。」

「一些航空公司在这个地区的表现相对不错,但其他航空公司则感到亏损所带来的压力。无论采用何种商业模式,他们都在进行或着手重组以保持竞争力。

「我们没有发布或无法取得详细的收益率资料,但很明显,激烈的竞争会导致对票价的压力,这对消费者有利,但从航空公司的角度来看却降低了利润率。」

另一个目前正在影响航空业和这个地区许多航空公司的危机就是波音MAX的停飞,赫德曼迅速指出,安全始终是航空业的头等大事,而国际航空运输协会亦会密切监察航空业的纪录。

他说:「但是,所有人都按照国际民用航空组织(ICAO)颁布的全球标准开展业务,但每个国家(即193个成员国)都会在自已国家内实施。

「他们之间的相互影响和不同国家用来认证飞机或允许在其领空进行操作的过程,对熟悉业界的人士有一定程度的复杂性,但这使解释国际监管框架的工作更具挑战性。

「如果发现事情出错或作出错误判断,则意味着所涉各方的数量要比单纯从一个国家的角度来看要大得多。」

航空货运:黯淡无光
「近一年来,货运业务一直非常疲弱。市场已萎缩,这与全球贸易停滞一致。」国际航空运输协会总干事赫德曼表示,「航空货运在全球经济增长中受益,而现在我们看到全球经济放缓,因此,航空货运需求同比呈负增长。」
他说,作为全球最大的航空货运运营商,亚洲航空公司正在感受到全球经济放缓的影响。「这反映了疲弱的贸易状况。这反映了贸易争端的不确定性以及解决争端的进展不足,」他说。
「不确定性影响商业投资决策并破坏全球供应链。综合起来,这导致非常疲弱的航空货运市场。对于货运,无可避免的事实是这个低迷已经持续了很长时间。即使我们处于一年中的繁忙时间,也没有迹象显示空运需求有任何回升。」

「在某个时候,联邦航空管理局(FAA)和其他监管机构会再次证明飞机具有适航性并将重新投入使用。

「航空业面对一些重大挑战,包括确保旅游的公众对乘坐飞机充满信心。」

最近在蒙特利尔召开的国际民用航空组织会议吸引了许多关注,其中包括青少年气候活动家格雷塔·图恩堡(Greta Thunburg)带领的抗议,以及中国、印度和俄罗斯的一再批评,指行业的国际航空碳抵消和减少计划(CORSIA)减排策略的某些内容对新兴经济体不公平。

赫德曼说:「结果是公平的。它重申对已实施国际航空碳抵消和减少计划的支持,亦同意探索减少排放的长期理想目标。

他说:「中国、俄罗斯和印度对该计划产生分歧是预期的。他们提出了他们在之前会议上表达的观点。问题在于,2016年达成的国际航空碳抵消和减少计划协议是否在不同观点之间取得了适当的平衡?这是一个折衷协议,该计划的设计反映了这一点。

「在这次大会上,最大的问题是决定重新开始有关计划设计的讨论。绝大多数意见认为,这样做有可能破坏整个计划的风险,这是不可取的。

「这就是为什么最后表决,即中国、俄罗斯和印度提交由代表进行的一票,绝大多数决定不改变计划。

'增长仍然超过4%,对于亚洲航空公司来说,国际旅客人数比去年有所增加。但增长率低于长期平均水平,亦低于我们近年来所取得的水平。尽管人们出游的数量仍创历史新高,但对全球经济的前景变得审慎,并且有一些迹象显示开始影响消费者的信心,包括对旅游的兴趣。'
安德鲁·赫德曼
国际航空运输协会总干事

「CORSIA中有审查的规定。我认为第一次审查定于2022年进行。在实施计划时有一种机制可以审查其性质。辩论将继续进行,但关键是,即使是那些[反对国际航空碳抵消和减少计划的某些条款的]国家也正在为所有国际航空公司实施该计划,而该计划亦在推展中。」

在每次国际航空运输协会大会上,无可避免的是,足够的航空交通管理和机场基础设施的进展或缺乏进展将会是讨论议程的优先议题。

赫德曼说仍然做得不够:「我们会继续专注此事。尽管今年的增长率正在放缓,但确保基础设施的扩展跟上需求的步伐跟以往一样重要。

「新的北京机场刚刚开放。香港、新加坡、越南和印度尼西亚还有许多其他机场基础设施正在建设中。马尼拉新机场亦开了绿灯。这就是一直致力于管理未来的增长。」

超负荷的航空交通管理系统是常年大会的另一个主题。「提出『亚洲无缝天空』这样的口号很容易。它为共同目标设定了前进的方向。正如我们在欧洲学习到的那样,实现这一目标更具挑战性,」赫德曼说。

「更新系统的努力仍在继续,但是进展的速度令人失望,而这已得到确认。从长远来看,挑战将是应付当今两倍的客量,将航空交通管理基础设施现代化以实现这一目标以及改善不同航空交通管理供货商之间的协调。科技仅使我们走到这么远。围绕不同的飞行情报区(FIR)之间的协作存在不同的组织和体制因素。

「从航空公司的角度来看,我们需要什么很清楚。实际上,无论是在北美、欧洲还是亚太地区,将航空交通管理现代化都是具有挑战性的。」

最后,尽管航空公司将继续面对现有和不可预测的挑战,但赫德曼说:「空中巴士和波音刚刚更新了对未来20年的年度市场预测。我们会仔细研究他们对看法的变化。但总体而言,形势依然光明,并且持续增长。这意味着关于可持续发展和航空环境影响的讨论必须具有高度优先性。

「各个地区对气候变化的态度和对气候变化的适当对策有所不同。特别是,正如蒙特利尔会议表明,在大型发展中国家,人们更加关注经济和社会发展。环境影响对他们来说是一个因素,但不是主要因素。必须将其与发展中国家的其他经济和社会发展目标作出权衡。

「他们的立场与特别是欧洲的辩论形成了鲜明的对比,在欧洲的某些国家,绿色运动非常努力推展更大胆的做法,以遏制二氧化碳的排放,不仅是航空方面,还包括发电、地面车辆、农业等方面的排放。

「这可以回溯到气候变化是全球挑战,需要全球应对的事实。就所有行业对此的最适当对应,发达国家与发展中国家之间的全球辩论必须继续。

「航空业有一个很好的故事,但考虑到一系列技术问题和涉及的其他因素,这是一个复杂的故事。这是一个重要的辩论。亚洲航空公司和亚洲各国政府必须积极讨论缓解气候变化的最佳方法。」

业界现况
• 航空交通管理

「实质上,航空交通管理并非自动化业务。已经有使用最新科技的地面航空交通管制员,但仍然非常耗费人力。航空交通管理依赖过程和程序。
「整合并不仅仅是技术整合,而是围绕不同飞行情报区之间协作的组织和体制因素。」
• 减排战
「气候变化是全球挑战,需要全球应对。发达国家与发展中国家之间的辩论必须继续就所有行业,不仅是航空业对气候变化的最适当全球应对达成共识。」
• 航空基础设施
「尽管今年增长率正在放缓,但长期前景是光明的,因此确保基础设施与增长保持同步的挑战跟以往一样重要。」
• MAX复飞难关
「我一直认为,要同时协调MAX重新认证和重新投入服务会非常困难。即使所有的修整和培训要求都已完成,但要在全球实施,让众多航空公司准备数百架飞机复飞仍然是后勤方面的挑战。」

 

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Heather Walter says:

June 7th 2022 11:05am


使用空白提款卡致富... Whatsapp:+18033921735 我想证明可以从世界各地的任何自动取款机上取款的暗网空白自动取款机卡。 我以前很穷,没有工作。 我看到了很多关于暗网网络黑客如何向他们发送 atm 空白卡并使用它在任何 atm 机器上收钱并致富的证词。(DWCHZONE@GMAIL.COM)我也给他们发电子邮件,他们给我发送了空白 atm 卡 . 我已经用它获得了 250,000 美元。 每天最多提取 5,000 美元。 暗网发放卡片只是为了帮助穷人。 使用在自动模式下运行的 atm 编程卡直接从任何 atm 机库中破解和取钱。 您也可以联系他们获取以下服务 * 西联汇款/MoneyGram 转账 * 银行转帐 * 贝宝 / Skrill 转账 * 加密采矿 * CashApp 转账 电子邮件:dwchzone@gmail.com 短信和电话或WhatsApp:+18033921735 访问:https://darkwebcycberhackers.com ======================================================================================================================================================================================================================= GET RICH WITH BLANK ATM CARD ... Whatsapp: +18033921735 I want to testify about Dark Web blank atm cards which can withdraw money from any atm machines around the world. I was very poor before and have no job. I saw so many testimony about how Dark Web Cyber hackers send them the atm blank card and use it to collect money in any atm machine and become rich.(DWCHZONE@GMAIL.COM) I email them also and they sent me the blank atm card. I have use it to get 250,000 dollars. withdraw the maximum of 5,000 USD daily. Dark Web is giving out the card just to help the poor. Hack and take money directly from any atm machine vault with the use of atm programmed card which runs in automatic mode. You can also contact them for the service below * Western Union/MoneyGram Transfer * Bank Transfer * PayPal / Skrill Transfer * Crypto Mining * CashApp Transfer Email: dwchzone@gmail.com Text & Call or WhatsApp: +18033921735 Visit: https://darkwebcycberhackers.com

Heather Walter says:

June 7th 2022 11:05am


使用空白提款卡致富... Whatsapp:+18033921735 我想证明可以从世界各地的任何自动取款机上取款的暗网空白自动取款机卡。 我以前很穷,没有工作。 我看到了很多关于暗网网络黑客如何向他们发送 atm 空白卡并使用它在任何 atm 机器上收钱并致富的证词。(DWCHZONE@GMAIL.COM)我也给他们发电子邮件,他们给我发送了空白 atm 卡 . 我已经用它获得了 250,000 美元。 每天最多提取 5,000 美元。 暗网发放卡片只是为了帮助穷人。 使用在自动模式下运行的 atm 编程卡直接从任何 atm 机库中破解和取钱。 您也可以联系他们获取以下服务 * 西联汇款/MoneyGram 转账 * 银行转帐 * 贝宝 / Skrill 转账 * 加密采矿 * CashApp 转账 电子邮件:dwchzone@gmail.com 短信和电话或WhatsApp:+18033921735 访问:https://darkwebcycberhackers.com

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February 9th 2022 03:36pm


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Perfect recovery of lost funds says:

February 9th 2022 03:35pm


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February 9th 2022 03:35pm


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February 9th 2022 03:34pm


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